Dynamic Cities

London_after_big

Microsoft UK recently released a study done by The Future Laboratory’ called ‘Microsoft: Work and Mobile Cities’ which looked at how the trend in mobile and remote working would impact the actual landscape around us.

Bill Gates used to quote the line ‘people always over estimate the impact of technology shifts over a two year period, but under-estimate them over a ten year period’. My explanation of this syndrome is that people often lose sight of the broader ‘ecosystem’ dependencies and obstacles. They see a demo of some nifty technology fresh from the lab and expect to see it in people’s hands across the land overnight, but they forget the dependencies on producing at scale, distributing the product, training people how to use it, often the contributory components like connectivity. Conversely, once those elements have sorted themselves out over a bit longer period of a few years, people can see the direct uses and impacts, but often neglect to consider the secondary and tertiary effects that those uses then foster.

The ‘Microsoft: Work and Mobile Cities’ report attempts to look out beyond the current trends and gadgetry and try to extrapolate to this ‘beyond ten year’ horizon. One of the notable longer term effects anticipated is how the work practices interplay with the environment. Not the carbon footprint and saving the planet environment. But the cityscape environment in which we live and work. The study actually has crafted artist visualisations of London, Brighton, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Manchester, Newcastle, Plymouth and Birmingham.

In much the same way that Service Oriented Architecture is changing the topology of the conventional IT’s spaghetti of static and complex systems. Dynamic work is similarly rewriting the inner working and layout of the urban schematic and Future Laboratory has laid out an intriguing sketch of how this might evolve.

Credit Crunching

Credit Crunch

Some compelling numbers on the economic imperative for dynamic work in the imposing economic conditions from insurance company RSA highlighted by Katie Ledger in her Portfolio Working blog.

“When asked about the prospects for their businesses during this economic downturn, one third (34%) of respondents thought they would definitely be able to grow or maintain their level of business…A possible reason for self-employed home workers not feeling the effects of the current financial climate might be the advantages they have over larger corporations. Respondents felt the top two advantages are being able to provide a more flexible service to accommodate client needs and clients knowing that the owner-manager is the single point of contact.”

The respondents cited both flexibility on how they work as well as the economic, social and ecological benefits of less commuting as two of the top benefits to working outside the traditional office.

Dynamic Licensing

Microsoft Virtualisation Licensing

One of the big motivations for starting this blog on ‘Dynamic Work’ was my observations of the parallels between the changing nature of how computers are and can work (more flexible, more modular, more dynamic) and how humans do. While organisations can change the processes, architecture, operations, etc. of both their IT systems and their people systems, one of the considerations that often gets it the way are commercial restrictions. In the human world, a classic example of this is union rules which constrain changes in work practice. In the IT world, an equally prominent constraint can be licensing restrictions on the technology.

And licensing considerations do hit one of the biggest technology opportunities to make systems more versatile and ‘dynamic’ – Virtualization.  At the core, software companies have long struggled to figure out the most appropriate way to license their products. To buy just about anything, one needs a price per unit and then people decide how many units that they want to consume. In the world of software, it is hard to figure out what ‘unit’ to ‘count’. Companies have licensed by machine, by processor, by user, by transaction, by MIP, by hour and a whole host of other ways. Microsoft offers many of these alternatives in licensing its software (which makes for more choice, but adds frustrating complexity).

The new technology of ‘virtualisation’ introduces new challenges to how and what you ‘count’. The software doesn’t necessarily get ‘installed’ on a particular piece of hardware so you can’t count boxes. Furthermore, most licensing has some constraints on ‘moving’ the software (‘I’ll use this piece of software here for a little while and then when I am done, I hand it over to you to use for a while…’). These constraints can fly in the face of one of the great potential benefits of virtualisation which is dynamic load balancing that involves constantly moving software and workloads to systems best suited to handle them.

Microsoft has already pioneered what many analysts have praised as innovative and pro-customer licensing terms around virtualisation.  It started a few years ago when it announced that multiple instances of the OS would be allowed with each purchase.  But this past year, Microsoft extended the flexibility even further by (a) enabling application mobility for 41 Microsoft server applications under volume license agreements, and (b) Waiving the 90-day movement rule for eligible servers licensed under the Per Processor licensing model. This announcement is a big step forward for companies that want exploit virtualisation to dynamically manage a range of workloads with unprecedented versatility. 

Gas Prices Encourage Telecommuting

Teleworking

Good piece from MSNBC on telecommuting subtitled ‘Employers reconsider traditional in-the-office work week’ looking at the economic drivers to more flexible work.

“Some employers are reconsidering the traditional five-days-in-the-office pattern as the national average price for a gallon of gas hovers around $4. The idea is to whittle down commuting costs for workers by allowing them to work from home or switch to four days of 10 hours each… The [Telework Coalition] estimates that more than 26 million Americans now telecommute at least some days, which would be about 18 percent of people employed nationwide.”  

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Preserving the World’s Assets

World

A number of megatrends are all converging to drive this move out of concentrated workplaces towards more distributed work. All of these drivers are centred on preserving key and increasingly precious assets to the global economy.

Energy Assets: Peak Oil – Concern is growing to new levels about world oil supply. While eternal optimism abounds in the world’s ability to out innovate and out discover the depletion of existing sources, recent evidence is that the new finds are smaller and fewer, the existing supplies are less accessible and less productive (eg. more energy input is required extract and refine). The commodity of oil is not just a unique energy source in its combination of power and safe transportability, but it is also a critical substance in plastics, construction materials and range of everyday substances and its increasing scarcity represents a major pinch point to global economic health.

Ecology Assets: Climate Change – If the economic costs of oil-supply and demand don’t hit us in the wallet, then the environmental costs of greenhouse gas emissions will hit us there and elsewhere. Not much comment needed on the profile and intensity of this issue. But in terms of what we can do about it one of the most prominent sources of emissions is automobile commuting. 54% of US petroleum used is consumed by automobiles and in commuting to work, the average number of passengers-per-vehicle is 1.1.

Social Assets: Dual Income Social Pressures – One of the most significant contributors to post-war growth in the Western world has been new entrants to the labour force, especially women. While this infusion of economic muscle has been a boon to the second half of the twentieth century, the social consequences of this mass rise of two income families combined with longer and longer commuting to places of work (fewer people live and work in the same city or town), means less parental time to manage the household and intensifying demands to juggle work and home life responsibilities.

Intellectual Assets: Rise of Knowledge Work – Assuming we have enough power to continue running the machines we have invented and propagated to handle brute force and routine tasks, the value-add work that human beings do gravitates increasingly to creative pursuits employing intellectual capital. Increasingly people are recognizing the intellectual waste from sitting in a car and the upsides of each person finding places and environments most suited to their own individual inspiration (a library, a quiet den, a retreat, a café, etc.). MSNBC recently reported (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20829879) people lose on average 1 week per year ‘sitting in traffic…and it is getting worse’ costing the USA $78 billion.